doom and gloom
Mar. 15th, 2006 09:15 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ilanaramaLast night Britt and I went to hear Bob Baer speak - he's the former CIA agent who wrote See No Evil, the book that the movie Syriana was based on (and we bought it and got it signed - I'm about 3 chapters in), and he happens to live in Silverton, which is about 50 miles north of here. Totally excellent but kind of scary.
What he ended up doing was giving a brief outline of his life and work with the CIA, and then opening up to questions. The place (a small theater) was full, and most of the questions were thoughtful and informed - I have to say I am way proud of my community for having so many educated people who follow current events. The main things I came away from his talk with were:
- The CIA is practically obsolete right now, because the administration ignores their intelligence in favor of what they want to believe.
- Going to war in Iraq was an incredibly stupid move. If we pull out now there will likely be a civil war in which a million people will die. If we don't pull out now there will likely be a global war in which the shit will seriously hit the fan, possibly in a nuclear way. He sees the "Muslim Brotherhood" strengthened through Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan taking on Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and there's 70% of the world's oil, and the US can't cope with that. His recommendation: immediate pullout, and fund research into alternative fuel with the priority of a Manhattan Project.
- "Absolutely we were better off with Saddam Hussein in power in Iraq. People prefer tyranny to chaos."
- There is no "Iraqi Army." Plans to hand off power are bogus. He thinks Iraq should be split into 3 parts a la the partitioning of India, with Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish territories.
- Iran's president Ahmadinejad is a complete nutjob who believes in "the endtime", and our actions in Iraq have helped bring him to power. He's not going to stop until he gets nukes, and he's the kind of guy who would use them. So we're probably going to go to war in Iran, but that's a complex problem right now because we don't have the force to do it, they have a real army, and a lot of their nuclear facilities are e.g. in universities.
Anyway, it was fascinating, and Baer's an engaging speaker, but wow, there's a powder keg out there, which of course we were aware of, but it seems a bit distant when it's just what you read in the paper and in news magazines.
Therefore, I'm going skiing.
What he ended up doing was giving a brief outline of his life and work with the CIA, and then opening up to questions. The place (a small theater) was full, and most of the questions were thoughtful and informed - I have to say I am way proud of my community for having so many educated people who follow current events. The main things I came away from his talk with were:
- The CIA is practically obsolete right now, because the administration ignores their intelligence in favor of what they want to believe.
- Going to war in Iraq was an incredibly stupid move. If we pull out now there will likely be a civil war in which a million people will die. If we don't pull out now there will likely be a global war in which the shit will seriously hit the fan, possibly in a nuclear way. He sees the "Muslim Brotherhood" strengthened through Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan taking on Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and there's 70% of the world's oil, and the US can't cope with that. His recommendation: immediate pullout, and fund research into alternative fuel with the priority of a Manhattan Project.
- "Absolutely we were better off with Saddam Hussein in power in Iraq. People prefer tyranny to chaos."
- There is no "Iraqi Army." Plans to hand off power are bogus. He thinks Iraq should be split into 3 parts a la the partitioning of India, with Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish territories.
- Iran's president Ahmadinejad is a complete nutjob who believes in "the endtime", and our actions in Iraq have helped bring him to power. He's not going to stop until he gets nukes, and he's the kind of guy who would use them. So we're probably going to go to war in Iran, but that's a complex problem right now because we don't have the force to do it, they have a real army, and a lot of their nuclear facilities are e.g. in universities.
Anyway, it was fascinating, and Baer's an engaging speaker, but wow, there's a powder keg out there, which of course we were aware of, but it seems a bit distant when it's just what you read in the paper and in news magazines.
Therefore, I'm going skiing.