some additional caucus thoughts

[ilanarama]

The Electoral Vote site (which is syndicated at electoralvote) has some interesting analysis of the Super Tuesday results. In particular, the Votemaster (Andy Tanenbaum) sorted the Democratic popular vote percentages and came up with the interesting tidbit that the most overwhelming majorities for Obama were in caucus states:

Obama did extremely well in caucus states and Clinton did very badly in them. How come? Turnout in caucus states is always low, usually about 10-20% of the electorate. Only highly motivated people bother to show up, especially the Democratic caucuses, which go on for hours and people haveto publicly defend their choice. Obama has a smaller, but extremely active and loyal following, especially among younger voters. These are precisely the people who can swing a caucus state by showing up in droves and working hard to convince the other voters that Obama would make a great President. In primary states, the media, especially TV ads have a much bigger influence.

This was certainly the case at our caucus, where we had a lot of people who had never before come to a caucus, and all but one were Obama supporters. (They were not all young, by any stretch of the imagination.)

One anomaly in the table of percentages is New Mexico, which is listed as a caucus state but split nearly 50-50 between the candidates. Since Durango's only half an hour from the NM state line, we get New Mexico news in our daily newspaper.  When I read the coverage of the caucus, I immediately thought: hmm, that sounds more like a primary than a caucus.  I did a little Googling and found out that yep, the New Mexico "caucus" is basically a primary. There is no discussion, no open voting.  Voters cast ballots at the caucus site and then leave, and they can even cast absentee ballots in advance. 

I think Obama's success in caucus states says a lot about his appeal. He inspires people. And I think that's important.

Comments

[aubrem.livejournal.com]

It's interesting but I'm not sure that I like the system. Why should people who feel most passionately about a candidate get a greater voice in the choosing? Why should you have to be able to defend your choice? For certain things in life, yes. And possibly choosing a political party's candidate is one of those things but I'm not so sure. Sometimes the quiet people who keep their own counsel know what they're doing. One person, one vote. I realize the primary isn't the election but still ... I'm more comfortable with a system in which people don't have to defend or even reveal their choices.

[lolaraincoat.livejournal.com]

A more cynical interpretation of why Obama does better in caucuses: nobody wants to reveal their racism in front of their neighbors. But in the voting booth, with nobody watching, even those voters who told pollsters that they would vote for Obama ... just couldn't pull the lever for the guy who's not white. I hope so much that this is not true. But I predicted exactly this Super Tuesday result after the New Hampshire primary, and here it is.

Fishwhistle, who's reading this over my shoulder, point out that both effects could be happening at once - these explanations don't rule each other out at all.

[alembicresearch.livejournal.com]

So do you get to go to the convention in Denver?

Sounds much better than CA!
The stratagy in CA is the grow to more than a billion people
(or more?), so all little states won't have a say.
Which is why Clinton is so popular here. :-)

[geoviki.livejournal.com]

I really was surprised how Obama-heavy our caucus was (2:1), and a friend in the mtns. went to hers and said she and one other person out of 55 were for Hillary.

I haven't worked it out myself.

Do you have any insight into how many Dems are in a precinct, roughly? I was curious about how many of the registered voters actually showed up. Or does it vary widely?

[frosch.livejournal.com]

I saw my first Obama yard sign Wednesday morning, after the Alabama primary.

On the other hand, I don't recall seeing any Clinton signs either. The only yard signs I've seen around here are for Republicans, mostly Ron Paul, although I think that's as much because the yellow dog Democrats, who are clearly in the majority around here, may be slightly embarrassed by the candidates they have to choose between.

I could have picked up a sign at the monthly party meeting, but had I picked up an Obama sign, Marsha would certainly have picked up a Clinton sign, and I decided that would look silly and be completely ineffectual. I think I finally convinced her to vote for Obama on the way to the polls, but of course I can't be sure.

The whole Michigan-Florida thing makes me angry, but I won't subject you to any more of my Hillary-bashing.